Henry Swan

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks.

While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.

In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened.  Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.

Canada's economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.

Canada's labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady.

The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually.

CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank's preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.

With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank's forecast.

The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

 Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank's next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026.

Source: Bank of Canada Website

The Canadian housing market is showing signs of renewed strength as we approach the end of 2025. According to the latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales across the country are on track for a strong finish to the year, buoyed by lower borrowing costs, improving consumer confidence, and a more balanced market.

A Shift Toward Market Stability

After several years of adjustment, the national housing market appears to be finding its footing once again. CREA's data shows that both home sales and average prices have been steadily improving in most major markets. This rebound comes as many buyers and sellers regain confidence, encouraged by recent interest rate reductions and a more predictable lending environment.

While the pace of growth varies from region to region, markets that experienced the sharpest slowdowns during the high-rate period-such as Ontario and British Columbia-are now seeing a modest recovery. Meanwhile, more affordable provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan, and parts of Atlantic Canada continue to attract strong demand from both first-time buyers and relocating families.

Interest Rate Cuts Helping Buyers Re-Enter the Market

One of the key drivers behind the recent uptick in activity is the Bank of Canada's move to gradually reduce interest rates in 2025. These rate cuts have helped improve affordability for many households that had been priced out of the market in previous years. Lower rates mean lower monthly mortgage payments, allowing buyers to stretch their budgets a little further and renew their homeownership goals.

For existing homeowners, refinancing or renewing at a lower rate has also provided some much-needed financial relief, especially after several years of rising costs. Mortgage professionals across the country are reporting an increase in consultations as clients explore opportunities to secure better terms or plan their next purchase.

National Home Prices Showing Modest Gains

CREA's latest figures indicate that the national average home price has been edging upward in recent months. While prices remain below their 2022 peaks, the stabilization is a positive sign for both homeowners and the broader economy. This trend suggests that Canada's housing market is entering a healthier phase, where prices are more closely aligned with fundamentals like income growth and supply levels.

Balanced conditions in many cities are also giving buyers more time and choice. This shift away from the intense bidding wars of past years has created opportunities for well-qualified buyers to negotiate favourable terms and find homes that truly meet their needs.

Supply Levels Still a Key Factor

Despite the encouraging rebound in sales, Canada continues to face a structural shortage of housing supply. CREA notes that new listings have increased slightly, but the number of available homes remains below long-term averages in many markets. Population growth and continued immigration are putting added pressure on supply, highlighting the need for ongoing construction and development across the country.

Federal and provincial housing initiatives are expected to play a vital role in addressing this imbalance. As new housing projects move forward, more inventory could help keep price growth sustainable in 2026 and beyond.

What This Means for Buyers and Homeowners

For Canadians thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing, the current market presents a window of opportunity. Lower interest rates, stable prices, and growing confidence are combining to create favourable conditions for those ready to make a move. Whether you're entering the market for the first time, upgrading to a larger home, or considering an investment property, understanding your financing options is more important than ever.

Working with an experienced mortgage broker can help you navigate the changing landscape, compare lenders, and find a solution that fits your budget and long-term goals. A broker can also assist with pre-approvals, rate holds, and refinancing strategies designed to take advantage of today's improving conditions.

Looking Ahead to 2026

As CREA forecasts continued stability into early 2026, most experts agree that Canada's housing market is transitioning into a more balanced and sustainable environment. While challenges remain-especially around supply and affordability-the overall outlook is more optimistic than it has been in several years.

If you've been waiting for the right moment to act, now may be an ideal time to review your mortgage options and prepare for what's ahead. Reach out to a licensed mortgage professional in your area to discuss how today's market trends could work in your favour.

Sources

Data and insights referenced in this article are based on the October 2025 housing market update from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.

After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed. US inflation has picked up in recent months as businesses appear to be passing on some tariff costs to consumer prices. Growth in the euro area has moderated as US tariffs affect trade. China's economy held up in the first half of the year but growth appears to be softening as investment weakens. Global oil prices are close to their levels assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased further, with higher equity prices and lower bond yields. Canada's exchange rate has been stable relative to the US dollar.

Canada's GDP declined by about 1½% in the second quarter, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity. Exports fell by 27% in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from first-quarter gains when companies were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace. In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.

Employment has declined in the past two months since the Bank's July MPR was published. Job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. The unemployment rate has moved up since March, hitting 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to ease.

CPI inflation was 1.9% in August, the same as at the time of the July MPR. Excluding taxes, inflation was 2.4%. Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated. A broader range of indicators, including alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes across CPI components, continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2½%. The federal government's recent decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward.

With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties. Governing Council will be assessing how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and changing trade relationships; how much this spills over into business investment, employment, and household spending; how the cost effects of trade disruptions and reconfigured supply chains are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.

The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.

Source: Bank of Canada Website

Canadian Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data Tables - July 2025

At our mortgage brokerage, we make it a priority to follow the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) monthly housing starts data. These figures aren't just numbers, they reflect the health of Canada's housing market and give homebuyers, sellers, and investors valuable insight into supply, demand, and future opportunities.

The July 2025 report shows notable shifts across the country, and we're here to break down what it means for you.

Key Highlights - July 2025

• Six-Month Trend (SAAR)
  

  The six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts climbed 3.7% in July to 263,088 units. This upward momentum highlights the resiliency of Canada's construction sector.

• Monthly Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR)
  

  The standalone SAAR rose 4% from 283,523 in June to 294,085 units in July.

  • Urban centres (pop. 10,000+) saw a 5% increase to 273,618 units.

  • Rural starts accounted for 20,467 units.

• Year-Over-Year (YoY) Actual Starts (Centres, pop. 10K+)
  

  Canada recorded 23,464 actual housing starts in July, a 4% increase from 22,610 a year ago. Year-to-date, the total stands at 137,875 starts, also up 4% compared to 2024.

• Regional Highlights
  

  • Montréal: Surged with a 212% YoY increase, largely driven by multi-unit projects.

  • Vancouver: Posted a solid 24% YoY gain, reflecting continued multi-unit demand.

  • Toronto: Fell sharply with a 69% YoY decline, showing weakness in both single-detached and multi-unit segments.

Broader Canadian Market Context

Housing starts continue to show strength across Canada, with multi-unit activity leading the way. Markets such as Québec and the Maritimes are seeing outsized growth.

Demand for rental housing, demographic shifts, and earlier permit approvals are fueling these numbers. However, slowing population growth and higher vacancy rates could temper activity in 2026.

What This Means for Our Clients

• For Buyers and Investors: In markets like Montréal and Vancouver, new supply means more opportunities to purchase condos, townhomes, and investment properties. Toronto's dip in starts, however, signals tighter supply, which could keep prices elevated.

• For Sellers: Sellers in growth regions may face more competition from new builds, while Toronto sellers may continue to benefit from limited supply.

• For Developers and Builders: Strong multi-unit activity presents opportunities for construction financing. Still, every region carries unique risks, so it's important to structure financing carefully.

• For Families Planning Ahead: Keep in mind that today's starts will take months, if not years, to translate into completed homes. For clients considering pre-construction purchases or development mortgages, timing is critical.

Quick Snapshot - July 2025

What's Next?

The July 2025 CMHC housing starts data shows Canada's construction sector continues to adapt to housing demand, particularly in the multi-unit space. Montréal and Vancouver are thriving with strong growth, while Toronto lags behind.

For our clients, these trends reinforce the importance of local expertise. Whether you're buying, selling, investing, or building, our team is here to guide you with mortgage strategies that align with Canada's evolving housing landscape.

Reference: ref: CMHC Website

Did You Know?

Did you know that Canada's latest inflation figure has cooled to 1.7% according to Statistics Canada? For everyday Canadians, this is more than a headline. It can point to lower borrowing costs, steadier home prices, and fresh opportunities to either buy your first home or restructure an existing mortgage to save money.

Attention: Why Inflation Matters for Homebuyers and Homeowners

When people hear "inflation," they often think about grocery bills or the price of gas. Inflation also shapes mortgage rates. Here is the simple link:

• When inflation runs hot, the Bank of Canada raises interest rates to cool spending, and borrowing gets more expensive.
• When inflation cools, as it has now to 1.7 percent, mortgage rates tend to ease over time, which can improve affordability.

This shift signals an opening for Canadians who have been waiting. If you have been on the sidelines, the window to buy or to refinance may be wider than it has been in years.

Interest: How Lower Inflation Creates New Possibilities

With inflation below 2 percent, the Bank of Canada has more room to hold or trim rates in upcoming decisions. That matters because:

• First-time buyers: Lower rates can reduce monthly payments, help you qualify for more, or simply give you breathing room.
• Current homeowners: If your renewal is coming up, you may be able to lock in a lower rate than what was available last year.
• Upsizers and investors: Improved affordability can make it easier to move up or add a property.

Illustrative example: On a $450,000 mortgage, a 1 percent lower rate can trim payments by roughly $250 per month depending on amortization and term. Over five years, that can approach $15,000 in potential savings. This is a simplified example, and actual results depend on your exact mortgage details.

Desire: Why Acting Now Can Pay Off

Opportunities like this rarely last. In many markets, prices have stabilized. When rates drift lower, demand often picks up, which can nudge prices higher again. Getting organized now helps you stay ahead of the next wave of buyers.

This is where a dedicated mortgage team helps. We compare lenders, evaluate products, and build a clear strategy for your goals. That might mean a shorter term to keep flexibility, a fixed rate for payment certainty, or a refinance that consolidates higher interest debt. Small adjustments can lead to meaningful savings and less stress.

Clients often tell us they thought refinancing would be complicated or that they would not qualify for better terms. Once we review the numbers, we frequently uncover a path that reduces payments or shortens the time to become mortgage-free.

Action: Three Steps To Take Today

1. Review your current mortgage. If renewal is within the next 12 to 18 months, start now. Many lenders allow a rate hold well in advance.
2. Get pre-approved if buying. Locking in a rate protects you if rates tick up while you shop.
3. Speak with a trusted mortgage professional. Every situation is unique. A quick strategy session can confirm if you are leaving money on the table.

Stats Snapshot: Inflation, Rates, and Housing

• Inflation: Statistics Canada reports the July 2025 Consumer Price Index at 1.7% year over year.
• BoC perspective on renewals: The Bank of Canada notes that many households renewing in 2025 and 2026 will still see payment increases versus 2024 levels, although pressure eases as rates drift lower.
• Market activity: CREA reported July 2025 home sales up on a monthly basis with the national benchmark price holding steady.
• Example retail rates: Major bank special offers for 5-year fixed are posting in the high 4s, subject to borrower profile and conditions.

These data points suggest affordability conditions are improving while the overall stress on renewals varies by household. Verifying your specific numbers is the best next step.

Top 10 FAQs About Inflation and Mortgages in Canada

1) What does 1.7 percent inflation mean for my mortgage?

Lower inflation signals less upward pressure on interest rates. It can support stable or lower mortgage rates over time, which benefits new buyers and those exploring a refinance.

2) Will mortgage rates drop further if inflation stays low?

There is no guarantee. Historically, cooler inflation gives the Bank of Canada more flexibility to trim policy rates if broader data supports it. Market expectations will shift as fresh data arrives.

3) Should I choose a fixed or variable mortgage right now?

It depends on your tolerance for payment changes, your timeline, and your budget. Fixed provides certainty. Variable can benefit if rates decline. We model both options to show total interest, payment paths, and renewal scenarios.

4) Is now a good time to refinance?

If you are holding a rate that is materially above current offers, a refinance can reduce interest costs or consolidate higher interest debt. The math must include penalties, legal costs, and your timeline. We run the full comparison for you.

5) How does low inflation affect home prices?

Lower rates often increase buyer demand, which can add price pressure. If you find a home that fits your budget and needs, acting sooner can help you secure value before momentum builds.

6) I renewed last year at a higher rate, do I have options?

Possibly. If the projected savings outweigh penalties, a mid-term refinance might make sense. Lender policies vary. A quick review can confirm.

7) How does inflation tie into the mortgage stress test?

The stress test uses qualifying rates that move with market conditions. If rates ease, qualifying can become easier at the margin. Your income, debts, and amortization remain key factors.

8) Are first-time buyers benefiting the most?

Many first-time buyers gain from lower monthly payments and rate holds while they shop. Good preparation still matters, including down payment planning and a clear budget.

9) Should I wait for inflation to fall even further?

There is always a trade-off. Waiting for a slightly lower rate can mean competing with more buyers later. Locking in a rate hold gives you protection and time to shop.

10) How can a mortgage broker help right now?

We compare multiple lenders, negotiate terms, and tailor a structure that fits your goals. You get clarity, speed, and a plan that evolves with market data.

Closing Thoughts

Inflation at 1.7 percent is a welcome sign. For Canadians, it can mean fresh pathways to buy a home or to cut borrowing costs through a refinance. Conditions are improving, yet markets move quickly. A short conversation can confirm if now is the right moment for you to act with confidence.