
I'm dedicated to guiding you through the mortgage process with ease and ensuring you’re fully informed about your options, whether you’re purchasing, renewing or refinancing. I take pride in my ability to communicate complex financial concepts in a way that’s easy for everyone to understand.
Purchasing a home can be a stressful experience, which is why I strive to make the process of securing a mortgage as seamless and stress-free as possible. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or a seasoned homeowner, I’m committed to finding the mortgage solution that best meets your unique needs.
If you need real estate financing in Victoria or the surrounding area, I’d love to work with you!
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Please Note: Some conditions may apply. Rates may vary from Province to Province. Rates subject to change without notice. Posted rates may be high ratio and/or quick close which can differ from conventional rates. *O.A.C. & E.O
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At our mortgage brokerage, we make it a priority to follow the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) monthly housing starts data. These figures aren't just numbers, they reflect the health of Canada's housing market and give homebuyers, sellers, and investors valuable insight into supply, demand, and future opportunities.
The July 2025 report shows notable shifts across the country, and we're here to break down what it means for you.
The six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts climbed 3.7% in July to 263,088 units. This upward momentum highlights the resiliency of Canada's construction sector.
The standalone SAAR rose 4% from 283,523 in June to 294,085 units in July.
Urban centres (pop. 10,000+) saw a 5% increase to 273,618 units.
Rural starts accounted for 20,467 units.
Canada recorded 23,464 actual housing starts in July, a 4% increase from 22,610 a year ago. Year-to-date, the total stands at 137,875 starts, also up 4% compared to 2024.
Montréal: Surged with a 212% YoY increase, largely driven by multi-unit projects.
Vancouver: Posted a solid 24% YoY gain, reflecting continued multi-unit demand.
Toronto: Fell sharply with a 69% YoY decline, showing weakness in both single-detached and multi-unit segments.
Housing starts continue to show strength across Canada, with multi-unit activity leading the way. Markets such as Québec and the Maritimes are seeing outsized growth.
Demand for rental housing, demographic shifts, and earlier permit approvals are fueling these numbers. However, slowing population growth and higher vacancy rates could temper activity in 2026.
For Buyers and Investors: In markets like Montréal and Vancouver, new supply means more opportunities to purchase condos, townhomes, and investment properties. Toronto's dip in starts, however, signals tighter supply, which could keep prices elevated.
For Sellers: Sellers in growth regions may face more competition from new builds, while Toronto sellers may continue to benefit from limited supply.
For Developers and Builders: Strong multi-unit activity presents opportunities for construction financing. Still, every region carries unique risks, so it's important to structure financing carefully.
For Families Planning Ahead: Keep in mind that today's starts will take months, if not years, to translate into completed homes. For clients considering pre-construction purchases or development mortgages, timing is critical.
Metric | July 2025 | Change (YoY / MoM) |
---|---|---|
Six-Month Trend SAAR | 263,088 units | +3.7% from June |
Total Monthly SAAR | 294,085 units | +4% from June |
Urban (pop. 10K+) SAAR | 273,618 units | +5% |
Rural SAAR | 20,467 units | - |
Actual Starts (pop. 10K+ centres) | 23,464 units | +4% vs July 2024 |
Year-to-Date Actual Starts | 137,875 units | +4% |
Montréal YoY Growth | +212% | - |
Vancouver YoY Growth | +24% | - |
Toronto YoY Decline | -69% | - |
The July 2025 CMHC housing starts data shows Canada's construction sector continues to adapt to housing demand, particularly in the multi-unit space. Montréal and Vancouver are thriving with strong growth, while Toronto lags behind.
For our clients, these trends reinforce the importance of local expertise. Whether you're buying, selling, investing, or building, our team is here to guide you with mortgage strategies that align with Canada's evolving housing landscape.
Reference: ref: CMHC Website
Did you know that Canada's latest inflation figure has cooled to 1.7% according to Statistics Canada? For everyday Canadians, this is more than a headline. It can point to lower borrowing costs, steadier home prices, and fresh opportunities to either buy your first home or restructure an existing mortgage to save money.
When people hear "inflation," they often think about grocery bills or the price of gas. Inflation also shapes mortgage rates. Here is the simple link:
This shift signals an opening for Canadians who have been waiting. If you have been on the sidelines, the window to buy or to refinance may be wider than it has been in years.
With inflation below 2 percent, the Bank of Canada has more room to hold or trim rates in upcoming decisions. That matters because:
Illustrative example: On a $450,000 mortgage, a 1 percent lower rate can trim payments by roughly $250 per month depending on amortization and term. Over five years, that can approach $15,000 in potential savings. This is a simplified example, and actual results depend on your exact mortgage details.
Opportunities like this rarely last. In many markets, prices have stabilized. When rates drift lower, demand often picks up, which can nudge prices higher again. Getting organized now helps you stay ahead of the next wave of buyers.
This is where a dedicated mortgage team helps. We compare lenders, evaluate products, and build a clear strategy for your goals. That might mean a shorter term to keep flexibility, a fixed rate for payment certainty, or a refinance that consolidates higher interest debt. Small adjustments can lead to meaningful savings and less stress.
Clients often tell us they thought refinancing would be complicated or that they would not qualify for better terms. Once we review the numbers, we frequently uncover a path that reduces payments or shortens the time to become mortgage-free.
These data points suggest affordability conditions are improving while the overall stress on renewals varies by household. Verifying your specific numbers is the best next step.
Lower inflation signals less upward pressure on interest rates. It can support stable or lower mortgage rates over time, which benefits new buyers and those exploring a refinance.
There is no guarantee. Historically, cooler inflation gives the Bank of Canada more flexibility to trim policy rates if broader data supports it. Market expectations will shift as fresh data arrives.
It depends on your tolerance for payment changes, your timeline, and your budget. Fixed provides certainty. Variable can benefit if rates decline. We model both options to show total interest, payment paths, and renewal scenarios.
If you are holding a rate that is materially above current offers, a refinance can reduce interest costs or consolidate higher interest debt. The math must include penalties, legal costs, and your timeline. We run the full comparison for you.
Lower rates often increase buyer demand, which can add price pressure. If you find a home that fits your budget and needs, acting sooner can help you secure value before momentum builds.
Possibly. If the projected savings outweigh penalties, a mid-term refinance might make sense. Lender policies vary. A quick review can confirm.
The stress test uses qualifying rates that move with market conditions. If rates ease, qualifying can become easier at the margin. Your income, debts, and amortization remain key factors.
Many first-time buyers gain from lower monthly payments and rate holds while they shop. Good preparation still matters, including down payment planning and a clear budget.
There is always a trade-off. Waiting for a slightly lower rate can mean competing with more buyers later. Locking in a rate hold gives you protection and time to shop.
We compare multiple lenders, negotiate terms, and tailor a structure that fits your goals. You get clarity, speed, and a plan that evolves with market data.
Inflation at 1.7 percent is a welcome sign. For Canadians, it can mean fresh pathways to buy a home or to cut borrowing costs through a refinance. Conditions are improving, yet markets move quickly. A short conversation can confirm if now is the right moment for you to act with confidence.
Canadian borrowers have spent the past seven years living with the mortgage "stress test," a rule that forces buyers and refinancers to qualify at the greater of 5.25 percent or two percentage points above their contract rate. That buffer protected households when rates were cheap, but in today's higher-rate world it is under fresh scrutiny. In June, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, OSFI, signalled it could replace that test with a loan-to-income, LTI, framework capped at 4.5 times a borrower's gross income. The change could land as early as 2026, and every Canadian with a mortgage decision on the horizon needs to understand the potential fallout.
Under the proposed rules lenders would monitor the share of new uninsured mortgages that exceed the 4.5× income cap, rather than forcing every applicant to clear a universal stress-test rate. The cap already applies at the portfolio level for federally regulated lenders beginning in fiscal 2025, giving OSFI real-world data before it makes a final decision on whether to scrap the stress test entirely.
OSFI says it will evaluate the framework until at least January 2026, then decide whether the LTI limit will stand alone or work alongside a scaled-back stress test. That timeline means borrowers shopping for pre-approvals in late 2025 could become the first to feel the impact.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 2.75 percent on July 30, 2025, its second consecutive hold. While stability offers short-term relief, a massive renewal wave means roughly 60 percent of all outstanding mortgages will reset between now and the end of 2026, most of them at higher rates.
The central bank's own modelling shows that about 60 percent of those renewing will still see payment increases, averaging 10 percent in 2025 and 6 percent in 2026 even if rates remain flat. In other words, qualification rules and payment affordability are converging issues for many households.
Consider a couple earning a combined $150,000, seeking a five-year fixed mortgage at 4.69 percent with a 25-year amortization and 20 percent down.
For borrowers on the cusp of qualifying, the difference can be the gap between condo and townhouse, or townhouse and detached home. Note, however, that lenders must keep their overall portfolio within OSFI's limits, so not every applicant will receive the higher ceiling.
Economists are split. Some argue that income-based caps in markets like the United Kingdom cooled demand and discouraged speculative bidding, implying price softness is possible. Others warn that if the LTI becomes the sole test and rates decline modestly, latent demand from sidelined buyers could spark renewed price pressure in mid-2026.
In the short term, expect a flurry of purchases before any transition date, as borrowers rush to lock in stress-test-based approvals. Similar surges occurred in 2016 before insured- versus uninsured-loan rule changes and again in 2018 when OSFI first introduced the stress test for conventional mortgages.
Navigating regulatory change is exactly where an experienced broker adds value. We monitor OSFI updates, Bank of Canada releases, and lender policy memos daily so you do not have to. When the rules shift, our team will re-underwrite your file under both regimes and advise on timing your application for maximum borrowing power, or maximum safety, depending on your goals.
Whether you are buying your first home, moving up, or facing renewal anxiety, reach out for a personalized assessment. We will map out best-case, base-case, and worst-case payment projections, factoring in potential LTI caps, future rate moves, and your household budget.
The mortgage stress test is not gone yet, but Canada's shift toward an income-based framework is well under way. The window to optimize your borrowing strategy under the current rules is measured in months, not years. Proactive planning today can save thousands in interest tomorrow and put you in a stronger negotiating position when OSFI makes its final call in 2026.
Ready to see where you stand? Book a discovery call or apply online for a no-obligation pre-approval and stress-test check-up. Together, we will make sure policy changes work for you, not against you.
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.
While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenarios-one with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs.
While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canada's exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar.
The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027.
In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January.
In the current tariff scenario, after contracting in the second quarter, GDP growth picks up to about 1% in the second half of this year as exports stabilize and household spending increases gradually. In this scenario, economic slack persists in 2026 and diminishes as growth picks up to close to 2% in 2027. In the de-escalation scenario, economic growth rebounds faster, while in the escalation scenario, the economy contracts through the rest of this year.
CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. Excluding taxes, inflation rose to 2.5% in June, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. This largely reflects an increase in non-energy goods prices. High shelter price inflation remains the main contributor to overall inflation, but it continues to ease. Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%.
In the current tariff scenario, total inflation stays close to 2% over the scenario horizon as the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly offset. There are risks around this inflation scenario. As the alternative scenarios illustrate, lower tariffs would reduce the direct upward pressure on inflation and higher tariffs would increase it. In addition, many businesses are reporting costs related to sourcing new suppliers and developing new markets. These costs could add upward pressure to consumer prices.
With still high uncertainty, the Canadian economy showing some resilience, and ongoing pressures on underlying inflation, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate unchanged. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs related to tariffs and the reconfiguration of trade. If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.
Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases from tariffs and trade disruptions are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.
We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 17, 2025.
Source: Bank of Canada Website
It feels like a collective exhale. After two grueling years of rapid interest‑rate hikes, the Bank of Canada has paused and even trimmed its policy rate, and many homeowners are finally seeing monthly mortgage payments drift lower. At first glance this sounds like unqualified good news. In reality, the picture is more complicated. Roughly six in ten Canadian mortgages will renew in 2025 or 2026, and for many borrowers, the new payment will still be higher than what they locked in during pandemic lows. In this explainer we unpack why payments are easing overall, what renewal stress looks like on the ground, and how to structure a game plan before your own mortgage comes due.
Mortgage payments respond to two mechanical levers: interest rates and amortization schedules. The Bank of Canada began modest rate cuts in early 2025, and lenders quickly passed those savings to variable‑rate clients whose contracts adjust in real time. Fixed‑rate shoppers also benefit because bond yields have retreated on softer inflation. Meanwhile, homeowners who hit their trigger rate in 2023 were already making lump‑sum prepayments or stretching amortizations, so even small rate relief translates into meaningful monthly savings.
At the macro level, Statistics Canada reported that mortgage interest payments declined by zero point three percent in Q1 2025, the third decrease in four quarters. Combine this with steady income growth and the result is a debt‑service ratio that has eased off its peak. That said, the improvement is uneven. Borrowers on adjustable variable contracts are cheering, while those locked into fixed terms from the low‑rate era are bracing for impact.
Renewal stress is not a catchy headline, it is a math problem. Imagine a homeowner who borrowed five hundred thousand dollars at one point eight percent in 2020. Their monthly payment was roughly two thousand one hundred dollars. If that mortgage renews at four point four percent, the new payment jumps to about two thousand seven hundred, an increase of roughly six hundred dollars a month. For households without spare cash flow, that delta can crowd out everything from grocery budgets to retirement contributions.
Regulators are watching closely. The latest Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report notes that sixty percent of mortgages renewing by late 2026 will face higher payments even under a soft‑landing rate scenario. Stress‑testing rules require lenders to qualify borrowers at the greater of two percent above contract or five point two five percent, but renewal affordability still depends on income growth, inflation, and employment stability.
1. Why are national mortgage payments dropping if rates only dipped slightly?
Aggregate numbers blend variable loans, new originations, and fixed terms that have not yet
renewed. The mix, plus income growth, is dragging the average lower.
2. Will everyone renewing in 2025 see a payment hike?
No. Borrowers who chose variable loans in 2023 at peak rates may see lower payments. Fixed‑rate
borrowers from 2020‑2021 will likely pay more.
3. How big could my payment increase be?
Households rolling from two percent to four and a half percent could see monthly costs rise
twenty to twenty five percent, depending on amortization.
4. Does my stress‑test rate guarantee I can afford the renewal?
It helps, but the test assumes stable income and no additional debt. Life changes can erode
that buffer, so revisit your budget early.
5. Can I switch lenders at renewal with no penalty?
Yes, penalties disappear at maturity, though you may still pay appraisal and legal fees,
which many lenders will cover to earn your business.
6. What if rates fall further before my renewal date?
You can often sign a rate‑hold with a broker or lender that lets you float down if market
rates drop before closing.
7. Is it worth breaking early to lock a lower five‑year fixed now?
Run the math on penalties versus savings. In many cases, waiting until ninety days out avoids
unnecessary costs.
8. How does an extended amortization affect long‑term interest?
It lowers payments today but adds interest over the life of the loan. Treat it as a temporary
tool, not a permanent solution.
9. Should I choose variable or fixed this cycle?
Variable loans offer savings if rates keep drifting lower, but fixed provides certainty. A
hybrid mortgage can split the difference.
10. Could widespread renewal stress trigger a housing downturn?
Analysts see limited systemic risk because job markets remain healthy, but localized price
softness is possible if distressed sales rise in certain regions.
A gentle dip in payments should not lull anyone into complacency. If your renewal lands in the next two years, start planning today. Update your budget, gather documents, and speak with a mortgage professional who can model scenarios. Even a single proactive move such as a prepayment or a blended extension can soften the landing. Mortgage markets move quickly, but preparation lets you move faster.
Have more questions? Reach out and our team will walk you through a free renewal readiness checkup, complete with rate forecasts, amortization options, and cash‑flow strategies suited to your goals.
Scraping together a competitive down payment in 2025 often feels like a marathon. But two revamped federal programs-the First Home Savings Account (FHSA) and the beefed-up Home Buyers' Plan (HBP)-let first-time buyers tag-team their tax shelters, potentially unlocking six figures of cash without triggering a tax bill. Below, we break down the rules, the math, and the smart ways to combine them so you can hit the starting line of your home search with real momentum.
Think of the FHSA as the love-child of an RRSP and a TFSA: contributions are tax-deductible now, and qualified withdrawals are tax-free later. You can deposit up to $8,000 per year until you hit the $40,000 lifetime ceiling, and any unused annual room rolls forward, so opening an account early maximizes flexibility (Source: CRA-First Home Savings Account, updated April 2025).
Contribution receipts lower your taxable income like an RRSP, and your growth compounds tax-free. You have a 15-year "participation period" to buy or build a qualifying first home. If you change your mind, you can roll the balance into an RRSP without affecting your RRSP contribution room, keeping the tax deferral intact.
The 2024 federal budget boosted the RRSP withdrawal limit under the Home Buyers' Plan to $60,000, reflecting bigger down-payments in today's market (Source: Budget 2024, Chapter 1: More Affordable Homes). This change applies to withdrawals made on or after April 16, 2024 and extends to buyers with disabilities purchasing an accessible home.
You still need to repay the borrowed amount to your RRSP over 15 years or include any missed instalments in your taxable income. But the higher ceiling means a couple can now pull up to $120,000-and combine that with two FHSAs for a potential $200k+ down payment.
Because Ottawa treats the FHSA and HBP as separate vehicles, you can tap both for the same purchase. A buyer who maxes their FHSA ($40k) and RRSP withdrawal ($60k) walks into their offer negotiations with $100,000-before even adding partner contributions or cash savings (Source: CRA-HBP Overview, updated January 2025).
That larger down payment can:
CMHC's 2025 Housing Market Outlook projects modest national price growth of 2–3 % through 2026, citing improved affordability as rates drift lower but inventory stays tight (Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, February 5 2025). Against that backdrop, first-timers with bigger liquid down payments will stand out to sellers and lenders alike.
No. You must not have lived in a home you or your spouse owned in the current or previous four calendar years to qualify (Source: CRA FHSA eligibility).
Good news-they don't. FHSA deposits sit on top of your RRSP and TFSA limits, giving you fresh tax-deductible space.
The schedule hasn't changed: the second calendar year after the year you withdraw. If you take funds in 2025, repayments begin in 2027.
Absolutely. Lenders will simply verify each source. A larger equity stake can even help you qualify under the mortgage stress test.
You must close the FHSA by the end of that year-rolling the balance into an RRSP or withdrawing it as taxable income. Rolling keeps the tax shelter intact.
Leveraging the FHSA and the enhanced HBP is one of the fastest ways to turn "someday" into "sold." If you're ready to map out a contribution strategy, or need help proving the down-payment source to a lender, our team is a click away.
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